So here is your bold, no bones about it, all out denial of the possibility of a Skyfall Best Picture nomination. The reviews for the final Harry Potter were as good as Skyfall, in addition to completing a farily remarkable franchise. At the end of the day, the major discounting factors are that it is (1) An action movie. (2) A franchise. The former might not be as big as a problem as the latter. There have been moments when it seemed like a major audience favorite that gets great reviews ought to be an obvious selection, but with Bridesmaids, with Harry Potter, with the Dark Knight, it just never happens. I would love to be proved wrong, but voters will simply find Argo an easy replacement for Skyfall as the international spy movie with gravitas.
I would love to be proven wrong, it would add a lot to the proceedings… But my intuition just can’t see that logo up there on those screens nominations morning.