100 Days: March predix revisit, key dates, new predix

100 Days: March Predix revisit, Key Dates, New Predix

Some Oscarologists don’t like picking early, before releases. Well, I am pretty proud of my initial predictions back in early March. They were, in order of likelihood:

Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
The Great Gatsby
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
The Dark Knight Rises
This is Forty
Hyde Park on Hudson

I think there will probably be five of those in the final nominees. Although to be fair, the biggest predictor these days is probably release date. This is where you start looking. Nevertheless, I am most proud of putting my weight behind Silver Linings Playbook on March 6. Next year, I will release a list the day after the Oscars. I must resist the temptation to start looking at release dates, but I will say I already have a few names in my head.

Now, the 100 days left are certainly not without major milestones along the way. As awards and nominees for other races start unfolding we may, or more interestingly, may not get a clearer picture of the frontrunner(s). I will also include the previous 3 winners, or last year’s nominees. I reserve the right to ignore the Satellie awards.

17 Days: New York Critics Circle winners: December 3 (The Artist, The Social Network, The Hurt Locker)

19 Days: National Board of Review winners: January 5 (Director: Martin Scorsese “Hugo”, David Fincher “The Social Network”, Clint Eastwood “Invictus”)

25 Days: Los Angeles Film Critics winners: December 11 (The Descendants, The Social Network, The Hurt Locker)

25 Days: Critics choice nominees: December 11 (All of the BP nominees + Drive)

26 Days: SAG nominees: December 12 (The Help, The Artist, Bridesmaids, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris)

27 Days: Golden Globe nominees: December 13 (Drama: The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, War Horse

Musical / Comedy: The Artist, 50/50, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris, My Week with Marilyn)

48 Days: Writers Guild nominees: January 3 (Original: 50/50, Midnight in Paris, Win Win, Bridesmaids, Young Adult

Adapted: The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, Hugo, Moneyball)

48 Days: Producers Guild nominees: January 3 (The Artist, Bridesmaids, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March

Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, War Horse)

53 Days: Directors Guild nominees: January 8 (Martin Scorsese, David Fincher, Woody Allen, Alexander Payne, Michel Hazavanicious)

54 Days: BAFTA nominees: January 9 (The Artist, The Descendants, Drive, The Help, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

55 Days: Critics’ Choice awards: January 10 (The Artist, The Social Network, The Hurt Locker)

55 Days: Academy Awards nominees: January 10 (Tree of Life, The Descendants, The Artist, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, ELIC)

58 Days: Golden Globe awards: January 13 (D: The Descendants, The Social Network, Avatar M/C: The Artist, The Kids Are All Right, The Hangover)

71 Days: Producers Guild awards: January 26 (The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, 2007 is last without a Best Picture winner)

72 Days: SAG awards: January 27 (The Help, The King’s Speech, Inglorious Basterds)

78 Days: Director’s Guild Awards: February 2 (The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, 2005 is last without Best Picture winner)

86 Days: BAFTA Awards: February 10 (The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker)

93 Days: Writers’s Guild Awards: February 17 (O: Midnight in Paris, Inception, The Hurt Locker A: The Descendants, The Social Network, Up in the Air)

100 Days: Academy Awards: February 24 (The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker)

I am intentionally leaving out the Indepdent Spirit Awards there, since those are, while typically very very good, not incredibly indicative of the Oscars in a direct sense. About half of the nominees and fewer winners end up going on to repeat at the Oscars. Actually The Artist was the first ever Independent Spirit winner to win Best Picture. (Though, once again, a nice list overall: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Spirit_Award_for_Best_Film). Some of the early awards have been good lately at predicting those close second places, for instance New York Critics, Board of Review and Los Angeles Critics Circle. Of course, there will also be many year end lists by individual critics and publications, which also don’t have any major mirroring for Oscars, but can nonetheless build gravitas, and are certainly great on their own.

Nonetheless, we have a busy 100 days, where the race will begin tightening and weaving here and there. The last several months have really started to narrow the field, but we are going to really start seeing some data now. And with that, allow me to give, maybe not the last field of predicting for the major categories, all in order of likelihood, with 10 nominees offered for Best Picture, without getting into where the cutoff might be:

Best Picture:

Silver Linings Playbook

Lincoln

Argo

Les Miserables

The Master

Life of Pi

Zero Dark Thirty

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Flight

Django Unchained

Best Director:

Ben Afleck

David O Russell

Steven Spielberg

Paul Thomas Anderson

Tom Hooper

Best Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence

Quvenzhane Wallis

Marion Cotillard

Keira Knightley

Jessica Chastain

Best Actor:

Daniel Day-Lewis

Joaquin Phoenix

Denzel Washington

John Hawkes

Bradley Cooper

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams

Sally Field

Helen Hunt

Anne Hathaway

Ann Dowd

Best Supporting Actor:

Tommy Lee Jones

Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Robert De Niro

Alan Arkin

Dwight Henry

Best Original Screenplay:

The Master

Flight

Django Unchained

Zero Dark Thirty

Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Argo

Les Miserables

Beasts of the Southern Wild

I suppose that puts me down for having Amy Adams be the sole acting winner for The Master. The Supporting races can be unpredictable and although I do love the two male actors in The Master, I believe Amy Adams was just as powerful, if not more. Also, I could see Ann Dowd’s performance being the type of supporting role the Oscars try and pick out, a bit like Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road, although granted that was a much bigger movie. It does depend on how much traction Ann Dowd gets so far as campaigning. The Independent Spirit awards could help her with a nomination.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s