Who will win? My heart says Silver Linings Playbook, my head says Argo.
Both match the bill for likely runner ups to the big prize.
After taking a good, hard look at the New York film critics circle awards, we also need to pay attention to what comes two days later, The National Board of Review awards. Now here we find a slight bit more consistency, at least in predicting the Best Picture runner up. With the exception of No Country for Old Men in 2007 and Slumdog Millionaire, The National Board of Review has awarded a film that went on to be nominated for Best Picture, yet failed to win, oftentimes narrowly, 8 out of the last 10 times.
2011 – Hugo
2010 – The Social Network
2009 – Up in the Air
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire*
2007 – No Country for Old Men*
2006 – Letters from Iwo Jima
2005 – Good Night and Good Luck
2004 – Finding Neverland
2003 – Mystic River
2002 – The Hours
While rarely the actual winner, each of these were nonetheless big names come awards night. It would appear that the National Board of Review is consistently a stop along the way for an awards season becoming clearer, putting some things on the table that will be part of Oscar night. Where the New York Critics Circle Award is bizarrely accurate when you take a look at the individual years and consider they are the first real start to Oscars accolades, The National Board of Review seems intent on remaining a conistently good alternative list to the usual Best Picture winners.
So, with that said, my intuition tells me that we’ll see a strong contender that isn’t gaining the traction to get over
the mountain, but could nonetheless carry the award proudly. Also, so many of these winners are from Directors with a few good movies under the belts, finally getting the accolade. Silver Linings Playbook and Argo are each within that description. Plus, PT Anderson, Katheryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper have both already been pushed aside, so I’m not sure they win. Besides if Zero Dark Thirty or Les Miserables win, that could provide the dangerous situation where one of those might actually go on to win and break the streak. Because Argo and Silver Linings Playbook wouldn’t be big surprises, wheras at this point, sould ZDT get a win it may start finding some momentum just at the right moment, rather than Les Miserables.
What if the NBR awards mirror the New York Critics Circle? Well, still you’ve got a 50/50 situation, which really breaks away from making the case, becuase shouldnt a rare double up make a leader that much more unstoppable? Yet, when the NBR has echoed the NYFCC over the past 10 years, it has only resulted in 1 in 2 ultimately winning: Slumdog Millionaire, with The Social Network still not taking it home.
Nonetheless, the NFCCC awards have a much better chance of predicting the Best Picture than the NBR, strange enough since they are so close together on the calendar. So I say we might see two films emerge stronger, and I will make fairly unique predicitions, going slightly out on a limb for two movies relatively buried right now…
NYFCC: The Master