Let’s Look at the Critics Choice Nominees

As the clouds lift ever so gradually, we get pictures that are more and more in focus that will lead to award ceremonies that can begin to mirror the eventual oscar nominee list. When the nominees are revealed in 30 days, all that’s left are upsets, like Al Brooks and surprise squeakers, like Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

With all of the Critics Awards afoot right now, New York often sets up the consensus that Los Angeles reacts to. The Critic’s Choice nominees on the other hand, bring a little clarity to the cadre of data out there. And let me say this, I’m not being too terribly scientific here. THERE WILL BE UPSETS

and looking at the history, these are still not 20/20 so far as predictions. This is a conversation about momentum and consensus, even should that consensus eventually become broken at the last minute.

So, let’s take a look at what these nominees are telling us…

(1) This is good for Lincoln. Not only is it nominated for a record breaking 13 nominations, which shatters the previous record held by Black Swan at twelve (corrected from yesterday, when I said ‘ten’), but we also see the current front runner shut out of the important ensemble category, allowing Lincoln to enjoy some possible frontrunner garnering, should they go on to lead with the guilds. Watch for the SAG nominees tomorrow… will Zero Dark Thirty also be shut out of the ensemble nomination there? It’s Zero Dark Thirty’s achilles heel right now.

(2) The new 10 Best Picture nominee frontrunners are now set, these they are. I think either Flight or Amour had an argument for that #10 slot, but now Django Unchained rounds them out. I’m not even sure which is stronger, Django, The Master or Moonrise Kingdom. Either way, the 6-10 nominees will come from those most likely. There are upsets, (ELIC), and you can probably count on one, but in terms of momentum, consensus, we have 10.

(3) With 6 Best Actor nominees, we can presume that 5 will come from these 6, which play according to consensus. I think the big upset potential candidate becomes Richard Gere. Murray seems to be going nowhere, same for Hopkins.

(4) Actress is also quite set at 6, with Keira Knightley the one that could upset still. She doens’t have wide support, but it’s a big role nonetheless. I would still put Watts at #6, though she has a good chance. Emmanuelle Riva is vulnerable since 2 foreign language performances would be odd, although i’d still keep her at #5.

(5) Supporting Actor. McConaughey is breathing life back into his chances. A nomination here only goes to solidify his NYFCC win. He’s a big contender. Bardem probably won’t get a nomination ultimately. The big question here is DiCaprio for Django. Oscar passed over Dicaprio last year, will they bring him back this year?

(6) Supporting Actress. Wow, Dowd has really been gaining lately. I don’t believe these Skyfall acting nominees will stick, so Maggie Smith continues to find little support. Dowd is solidifying that #5 position now.

(7) Ensemble is kinda interesting. Argo, SLP, Les Mis, Lincoln, no surprises. Marigold Hotel and Moonrise Kingdom make sense since they are pretty loaded with talent. I guess that makes sense, although leaving out The Master with its many single acting nominations is odd in a way, although I suppose they were simply splitting up support that way.

(8) Director. That does continue to be the consensus, pretty much lining up with the current 1 – 6. The big question is Lee. does he break through? I say not. He is solid #6, but I just don’t see him knocking out the other candidates at this point. There are weaknesses for many, but there has also been considerable support. Though, once again, there can be upsets. PT Anderson would be a major comeback kid if he got in now.

(9) OScreenplay. Pretty predictable there. I say Looper pushes out Flight to get the eventual nomination.

(10) AScreenplay: Life of Pi skips over Beasts and Les Mis. Perks skips over a lot, most notable, The Sessions. I think the eventual nominees will include Beasts and Life of Pi.

(11) Animated Feature is basically consensus plus Madagascar 3. The nominees will probably be these minus Madagascar 3.

(12) Score with no Anna Karenina or Beasts is a little surprising, Moonrise Kingdom getting some more love there, which is nice.

Full List:

BEST PICTURE

  • Argo
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Django Unchained
  • Les Misérables
  • Life of Pi
  • Lincoln
  • The Master
  • Moonrise Kingdom
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACTOR

  • Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
  • John Hawkes (The Sessions)
  • Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
  • Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
  • Denzel Washington (Flight

BEST ACTRESS

  • Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
  • Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
  • Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
  • Naomi Watts (The Impossible

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Alan Arkin (Argo)
  • Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
  • Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  • Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
  • Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Adams (The Master)
  • Judi Dench (Skyfall)
  • Ann Dowd (Compliance)
  • Sally Field (Lincoln)
  • Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

  • Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
  • Kara Hayward (Moonrise Kingdom)
  • Tom Holland (The Impossible)
  • Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
  • Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
  • Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

  • Argo
  • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
  • Les Misérables
  • Lincoln
  • Moonrise Kingdom
  • Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Ben Affleck (Argo)
  • Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
  • Tom Hooper (Les Misérables)
  • Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
  • David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Steven Spielberg (Lincoln

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
  • John Gatins (Flight)
  • Rian Johnson (Looper)
  • Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
  • Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)
  • Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Chris Terrio (Argo)
  • David Magee (Life of Pi)
  • Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
  • Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
  • David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Les Misérables – Danny Cohen
  • Life of Pi – Claudio Miranda
  • Lincoln – Janusz Kaminski
  • The Master – Mihai Malaimare Jr.
  • Skyfall – Roger Deakins

BEST ART DIRECTION

  • Anna Karenina – Sarah Greenwood/Production Designer; Katie Spencer/Set Decorator
  • The Hobbit – Dan Hennah/Production Designer; Ra Vincent & Simon Bright/Set Decorators
  • Les Misérables – Eve Stewart/Production Designer; Anna Lynch-Robinson/Set Decorator
  • Life of Pi – David Gropman/Production Designer; Anna Pinnock/Set Decorator
  • Lincoln – Rick Carter/Production Designer; Jim Erickson/Set Decorator

BEST EDITING

  • Argo – William Goldenberg
  • Les Misérables – Melanie Ann Oliver and Chris Dickens
  • Life of Pi – Tim Squyres
  • Lincoln – Michael Kahn
  • Zero Dark Thirty – William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Anna Karenina – Jacqueline Durran
  • Cloud Atlas – Kym Barrett and Pierre-Yves Gayraud
  • The Hobbit – Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey and Richard Taylor
  • Les Misérables – Paco Delgado
  • Lincoln – Joanna Johnston

BEST MAKEUP

  • Cloud Atlas
  • The Hobbit
  • Les Misérables
  • Lincoln

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • The Avengers
  • Cloud Atlas
  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • The Hobbit
  • Life of Pi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Brave
  • Frankenweenie
  • Madagascar 3
  • ParaNorman
  • Rise of the Guardians
  • Wreck-It Ralph

BEST ACTION MOVIE

  • The Avengers
  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • Looper
  • Skyfall

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE

  • Christian Bale (The Dark Knight Rises)
  • Daniel Craig (Skyfall)
  • Robert Downey Jr. (The Avengers)
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Looper)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE

  • Emily Blunt (Looper)
  • Gina Carano (Haywire)
  • Judi Dench (Skyfall)
  • Anne Hathaway (The Dark Knight Rises)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games

BEST COMEDY

  • Bernie
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Ted
  • This Is 40
  • 21 Jump Street

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

  • Jack Black (Bernie)
  • Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Paul Rudd (This Is 40)
  • Channing Tatum (21 Jump Street)
  • Mark Wahlberg (Ted

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

  • Mila Kunis (Ted)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
  • Shirley MacLaine (Bernie)
  • Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
  • Rebel Wilson (Pitch Perfect

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE

  • The Cabin in the Woods
  • Looper
  • Prometheus

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Amour
  • The Intouchables
  • A Royal Affair
  • Rust and Bone

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Bully
  • The Central Park Five
  • The Imposter
  • The Queen of Versailles
  • Searching for Sugar Man
  • West of Memphis

BEST SONG

  • For You – performed by Keith Urban/written by Monty Powell & Keith Urban – Act of Valor
  • Learn Me Right – performed by Birdy with Mumford & Sons/written by Mumford & Sons – Brave
  • Skyfall – performed by Adele/written by Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth – Skyfall
  • Still Alive – performed by Paul Williams/written by Paul Williams – Paul Williams Still Alive
  • Suddenly – performed by Hugh Jackman/written by Claude-Michel Schonberg & Alain Boublil & Herbert Kretzmer – Les Misérables

BEST SCORE

  • Argo – Alexandre Desplat
  • Life of Pi – Mychael Danna
  • Lincoln – John Williams
  • The Master – Jonny Greenwood
  • Moonrise Kingdom – Alexandre Desplat
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